Dublin Economic Monitor

The latest Monitor shows Dublin's economy balancing resilience with a slowing pace. Employment remains at record highs, consumer spending is edging upwards, and all sectors of business activity are still in expansion. Yet, the rise in unemployment, weakening vacancy trends, and a sharp fall in housing commencements are important signals that the city cannot ignore. The rebound in housing completions is encouraging, but without a stronger pipeline, supply pressures will persist. Meanwhile, retail and tourism spending demonstrate the continued strength of Dublin's consumer economy, even against global trade headwinds. Taken together, the Capital is holding firm, but with momentum becoming more measured, policy delivery on housing and infrastructure will be crucial to sustaining confidence in the months ahead.

It was good to see a return to growth in manufacturing production in Dublin, which meant that all three monitored sectors contributed to the overall expansion in business activity seen in the second quarter of the year. Overall, however, the picture was quite subdued, with little movement in new orders during the quarter meaning that firms increased their output and employment only modestly. With US trade policy potentially becoming clearer soon, the Dublin private sector is at something of a crossroads as we enter the second half of the year. We will hopefully see a demand environment more conducive to growth in Q3.