Activity in Dublin’s private sector slows down in the first quarter of 2025.
The latest PMI survey from S&P Global, shows that business activity in Dublin’s private sector increased in the first quarter of 2025, albeit at a softer rate than Q4 2024. The headline rate stood at 52.6, down from 54.7 in the previous quarter. Crucially this remains above the 50 point mark that denotes expansion but uncertainty around the implementation of US trade tariffs will likely weigh on business activity in the coming quarters. At 52.4, output across the Rest of Ireland remained marginally slower than Dublin.
All three sectors that make up business activity, slowed in Dublin in Q1 2025. The Manufacturing sector (48.9) experienced a contraction in activity for the first time in 3 quarters. Both the Construction (57.8) and Service (53.4) sectors posted increases in activity but at slower rates than seen in Q4 2024 when they were at 59.6 and 55.1 respectively. The Rest of Ireland saw increases in activity in both the Manufacturing (52.2) and Service (55.6) sectors but a decline in Construction (48.8).
New orders (52.0) continued to rise in the Capital extending the current sequence of growth to five successive quarters. However, the rate of expansion declined to its joint-slowest of the past year, resulting in only a modestly positive reading. The Rest of Ireland (52.7) saw a quicker expansion in new business than Dublin.
The pace of job creation in Dublin (51.2) increased QoQ, as companies continued to take on extra staff. However, the expansion was only modest and the rate of new employment decreased YoY from the 53.9 level seen in Q1 2024. The Rest of Ireland (51.4) posted a broadly similar rate of job creation to that seen in Dublin.
Commenting on the PMI, Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
The Dublin private sector made a positive start to 2025, with business activity rising on the back of higher new orders. There was good news for the labour market as well, with the pace of job creation picking up. The picture in the capital was broadly similar to across the Rest of Ireland in the early part of the year. One slight area of concern was a reduction in manufacturing output which limited the overall pace of growth. This will hopefully be a temporary blip and we’ll see growth return in the second quarter, with the fall perhaps representing some caution in the sector amid uncertainty around US trade policy.
Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence
